How This Strange Campaign Shattered the Conventional Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.
On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround wins the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.
However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and longtime strugglers improving together. In an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.
Here is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.
Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.
Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical year!
Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything together.
After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.
The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record
Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of peers.
Still
