Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
