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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd